I'm not the most qualified to make a study of this, but I'd be interested to see if anyone wants to take on this study:
What are the medium to long term consequences for congressmen and senators who oppose moves to war? There is little doubt that they face immediate consequences - witness the Democratic losses in 2002 like Saxby Chambliss and Tom Daschle. Common wisdom (not necessarily the best guide) says that it can be political suicide to oppose a large scale march to war (so Iraq, Persian Gulf, Vietnam, as opposed to Kosovo, Somalia, Grenada). But do these consequences continue over the years? John Kerry opposed the Perisan Gulf War but voted for the Iraq War - so while he didn't win the presidency he seemingly didn't pay a price (in terms of his senate seat) for opposing a succesful, popular war and supporting a disastrous, briefly popular war. Maybe he's a bad example since he's from a reliably liberal state, but what about more vulnerable congressmen?
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